Valimis-situatsiooni arvestav uuring: Reform 27, IRL 24, Kesk 24
26.02.2011
Kommentaarid (19)
Viimane TNS EMORi uuring seab nädal enne valimisi Eesti poliitilise maastiku huvitavasse olukorda. Vaid nädal enne valimisi on suured erakonnad kõik ninapidi koos.
EMORi küsitlus näitab inimeste kasvavat toetust IRLi põhiideedele - emapensionile, tasuta kõrgharidusele ja kodukulude alandamisele. Nende teemade üle on ka käinud peamine debatt valimistel. Oleme avalikuks teinud ka oma punased jooned ehk piirid, millest hoiame "kümne küünega kinni" - IRL ei kehtesta astmelist tulumaksu ega lase Eestit viia palgaarmeele. IRL viib eelarve tasakaalu ja alandab maksukoormust, mis loob aluse uueks majanduskasvuks.
IRL on selgelt tõusuteel ning olukord valimistel on muutunud oluliselt pingelisemaks.
Aga kuidas edasi - valimisteni on aega veel 1 nädal! Ja siiski 25% valijaid ei ole oma eelistust välja öelnud. Viimaste uuringute valguses pakun välja 2 eraldiseisvat arengut meediamaailmas.
Esiteks, Reform taob trummi kuni lõpuni nn. vastasseisust Keskiga. IRL-i püütakse selles spinnis mitte mängu tuua. Eeldatakse, et mida vähem IRL-ist räägid, seda vähem teda märgatakse. Ja kui tõesti peab koalitsioonipartnerit mainima, siis pigem alatooniga sildistades a' la kui te ei vali Reformi, siis võite saada Savisaare või koguni Laari.
Teiseks, Kesk seevastu püüab oma tavavastandumise Reformi vastu lüüa kaheks, tuues sisse ka IRL-i. Seda "nõuab" IRL toetusprotsent. Kuna Keski kampaania baseerub vaid negatiivsel kampaanial, siis näeme viimase 7 päeva jooksul veel küllaga "uusi paljastusi" Keski sulest. Keski moto nendel valimistel on seekord vaid üks - valijat tuleb hirmutada!
Huvitav, kas sellesse pilti mahub nädala jooksul ka reaalsete valimislubaduste ja valimiskonfliktidega debatid. Tahaks loota.
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